It’s not often that a random retail release gets the collector’s market fired up, but this particular title and the associated gossip is apparently too juicy to simply go ignored. Meet Devil’s Third, a terrible action-shooter/brawler and the current subject of some rather surprising eBay speculation:

For those not in the know, Devil’s Third is the first major release from Tomonobu Itagaki’s new post-Tecmo venture Valhalla Game Studios. It’s had a bit of a tumultuous history: announced in 2010 as a PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 title, D3 survived the crash of publisher THQ, later being picked up by Nintendo as an exclusive for their struggling Wii U console. Now, after a long wait the game is finally here and… reviews have not been kind.

Now normally, a critically-panned game wouldn’t be great fodder for collectors, but it’s the rumors of an insanely small print run that have helped fuel this current wave of speculation. Multiple outlets have confirmed that Nintendo basically tried to bury the existence of the game in official marketing, and it seems that the print numbers of D3 may match with Nintendo’s lack of enthusiasm for the title. Sure enough, many gamers are reporting that the game has been impossible to find at retail, with Destructoid even claiming that GameStop received only 420 copies of the game nationwide.

Anyhow, the current eBay price war over copies of the game has some collectors convinced that Devil’s Third is the investment opportunity of the lifetime, while others are shaking their heads at those foolish enough to drop $60 on a dud. To be fair, low print runs alone do not result in a collector’s item, there must be at least some level of demand.

For example, I’m reminded of similar hype for the 2005 Xbox title “Spikeout: Battle Street.” Like Devil’s Third, the game was a critically-panned action brawler, but with a popular publisher (Sega) and a very low print run (3,600 copies was the rumored number). After an initial flurry of similar eBay speculation, prices dropped, and copies now go at auction for just $10 (from an original MSRP was $30).

Case studies like the above initially had me skeptical about Devil’s Third’s chances of becoming a collector’s item, though I must admit I ultimately took my chance on a purchase.

Look what you idiots made me do @MrJettinger @Dtoid pic.twitter.com/8SEgxays5H

— Vito Gesualdi (@VitoGesualdi) December 15, 2015

I don’t think the game will be the sort of must-have mega hit that pays for your kid’s college, but I do think that if you don’t grab a copy now, you’ll be kicking yourself trying to find a decently priced copy in a year’s time. Here’s my reasoning:

1. Auteur theory – Unlike a game like Spikeout (by the lovable scamps at Dimps), Devil’s Third is the work of a known gaming auteur, and it’s possible many collectors will want to own this one simply by virtue of Itagaki’s name being attached. Sure, Itagaki’s name isn’t as prestigious as that of Miyamoto or Kojima, but you never know what could happen. If down the line Valhalla produces a truly beloved franchise on the level of a Metal Gear, you can expect Itagaki’s past releases to see a bump in desirability.

2. Confirmed low print run – Real quick, let me mention that I think Destructoid’s “420 copies” number is likely to be wrong. For starters, GameStop is currently running one of those obnoxious in-store video promos for the game, and I doubt they would waste resources on such a thing if they knew only a tenth of their 4,000 or so outlets were going to actually be selling copies. Not to mention, just getting the disc onto the presses is an expense, so why would Nintendo not run off a semi-decent number of the things before shutting the operation down?

However, it’s true Nintendo has always proven themselves to be very conservative about print runs. With Devil’s Third, they have a game they seem to publishing only because of contractual obligation, along with three months of British sales data to assure them that it’s a stinker. Let’s do some random math and assume that each GameStop received a single copy, along with a few extra copies to help stock BestBuy and Amazon for a few days. That would point to a print run of about 5,000, which would definitely be low enough to make D3 a potential collector’s item.

3. More Wii U collectors coming – Many collectors have yet to even join the modern console generation, and of those that have, the Wii U is least likely to be their console of choice. As such, I think any semi-popular Wii U title is a good investment, as demand will continue to rise as more and more collectors actually start assembling a game library for Nintendo’s failed tablet experiment. Already games like Pikmin 3 are selling at above MSRP, and others like Game & Wario or Wii Sports Club are trending upwards. (Get in now!)

4. Low chance of reprint – The Big N doesn’t typically reprint anything not belonging to their AAA franchises. Ocarina of Time 3DS got the reprint it needed, but Starfox 64 3D and Kid Icarus: Uprising remain hard to find. And, given Nintendo’s eagerness to bury the game, its unlikely GameStop could talk them into a reprint (like they did for Xenoblade and Metroid Prime Trilogy), even if the demand did exist for one. Whatever number currently exists is all we’re likely to see.(Also, the Spikeout example suffers from unconfirmed rumors of a reprint, which may be part of why it didn’t maintain it’s desirability).

5. Game might not actually suck that bad – According to many non-mainstream reviewers, Devil’s Third is actually kind of fun! This piece of data is the most encouraging, as it means D3 could be the kind of perfect storm collectors live for: an actual cult-classic with a print run far too low to satisfy demand.

Consider God Hand, which IGN gave a terrible 3/10 rating, outlets like EGM and Game Informer chiming in with similar hate. Thing is, God Hand actually fucking rules. Sure, it’s not for everyone, but for those of us who like weird Japanese brawlers with complex combo systems, its a must have. God Hand is currently one of the rarer PS2 games ($40 on eBay), and will likely continue go up once people get off the Nintendo retro craze and realize that collecting for Sony platforms is actually pretty fun.

I plan to stream Devil’s Third with the Fun Dumpster crew in the near future, to see whether it might actually be another God Hand in disguise.  Fingers crossed. (Follow me on twitter for an announcement of our next stream!)